Minimizing Population Health Loss in Times of Scarce Surgical Capacity During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Crisis and Beyond: A Modeling Study.

OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 has put unprecedented pressure on healthcare systems worldwide, leading to a reduction of the available healthcare capacity. Our objective was to develop a decision model to estimate the impact of postponing semielective surgical procedures on health, to support prioritization of care from a utilitarian perspective. METHODS: A cohort state-transition model was developed and applied to 43 semielective nonpediatric surgical procedures commonly performed in academic hospitals. Scenarios of delaying surgery from 2 weeks were compared with delaying up to 1 year and no surgery at all. Model parameters were based on registries, scientific literature, and the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease study. For each surgical procedure, the model estimated the average expected disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per month of delay. RESULTS: Given the best available evidence, the 2 surgical procedures associated with most DALYs owing to delay were bypass surgery for Fontaine III/IV peripheral arterial disease (0.23 DALY/month, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.13-0.36) and transaortic valve implantation (0.15 DALY/month, 95% CI: 0.09-0.24). The 2 surgical procedures with the least DALYs were placing a shunt for dialysis (0.01, 95% CI: 0.005-0.01) and thyroid carcinoma resection (0.01, 95% CI: 0.01-0.02). CONCLUSION: Expected health loss owing to surgical delay can be objectively calculated with our decision model based on best available evidence, which can guide prioritization of surgical procedures to minimize population health loss in times of scarcity. The model results should be placed in the context of different ethical perspectives and combined with capacity management tools to facilitate large-scale implementation.

Surge after the surge: Anticipating the increased volume and needs of patients with head and neck cancer after the peak in COVID-19.

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to have extensive effects on public health as it spreads rapidly across the globe. Patients with head and neck cancer are a particularly susceptible population to these effects, and we expect there to be a potential surge in patients presenting with head and neck cancers after the surge in COVID-19. Furthermore, the impact of social distancing measures could result in a shift toward more advanced disease at presentation. With appropriate anticipation, multidisciplinary head and cancer teams could potentially minimize the impact of this surge and plan for strategies to provide optimal care for patients with head and neck cancer.

The Surge After the Surge: Cardiac Surgery Post-COVID-19.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically reduced adult cardiac surgery case volumes as institutions and surgeons curtail nonurgent operations. There will be a progressive increase in deferred cases during the pandemic that will require completion within a limited time frame once restrictions ease. We investigated the impact of various levels of increased postpandemic hospital operating capacity on the time to clear the backlog of deferred cases. Methods: We collected data from 4 cardiac surgery programs across 2 health systems. We recorded case rates at baseline and during the COVID-19 pandemic and created a mathematical model to quantify the cumulative surgical backlog based on the projected pandemic duration. We then used the model to predict the time required to clear the backlog depending on the level of increased operating capacity. Results: Cardiac surgery volumes fell to 54% of baseline after restrictions were implemented. Assuming a service restoration date of either June 1 or July 1, we calculated the need to perform 216% or 263% of monthly baseline volume, respectively, to clear the backlog in 1 month. The actual duration required to clear the backlog highly depends on hospital capacity in the post-COVID period, and ranges from 1 to 8 months, depending on when services are restored and the degree of increased capacity. Conclusions: Cardiac surgical operating capacity during the COVID-19 recovery period will have a dramatic impact on the time to clear the deferred cases backlog. Inadequate operating capacity may cause substantial delays and increase morbidity and mortality. If only prepandemic capacity is available, the backlog will never clear.

Asignación ética de recursos sanitarios escasos en el contexto de crisis por COVID-19 / Ethical allocation of scarce health care resources in the context of the COVID-19 crisis

La actual pandemia por COVID-19 tiene el potencial de sobrepasar la capacidad de hospitales y unidades de cuidados intensivos en Chile y América Latina. Por lo tanto, las autoridades locales tienen la obligación ética de estar preparadas mediante la implementación de medidas tendientes a evitar una situación de racionamiento de recursos sanitarios escasos, y a través de la definición de criterios éticamente aceptables y socialmente legítimos para la asignación de estos recursos. Este artículo presenta una respuesta a orientaciones éticas recientes emitidas por una institución académica chilena y analiza los principios éticos relevantes para la fundamentación ética de criterios de racionamiento. Se argumenta que, frente a circunstancias excepcionales como la actual pandemia, la moral centrada en el paciente de la medicina tradicional necesita ser ponderada con principios éticos formulados desde una perspectiva de salud pública, incluyendo los principios de utilidad social, justicia social y equidad, entre otros. Se concluye con algunas recomendaciones sobre cómo llegar a acuerdo sobre criterios de racionamiento y sobre la implementación de estos en la práctica clínica.

The current COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to overwhelm the capacity of hospitals and Intensive Care Units in Chile and Latin America. Thus local authorities have an ethical obligation to be prepared by implementing pertinent measures to prevent a situation of rationing of scarce healthcare resources, and by defining ethically acceptable and socially legitimate criteria for the allocation of these resources. This paper responds to recent ethical guidelines issued by a Chilean academic institution and discusses the main moral principles for the ethical foundations of criteria for rationing during the present crisis. It argues that under exceptional circumstances such as the current pandemic, the traditional patient-centered morality of medicine needs to be balanced with ethical principles formulated from a public health perspective, including the principles of social utility, social justice and equity, among others. The paper concludes with some recommendations regarding how to reach an agreement about rationing criteria and about their implementation in clinical practice.

Effect of Reverse Triage on Creation of Surge Capacity in a Pediatric Hospital.

Importance: The capacity of pediatric hospitals to provide treatment to large numbers of patients during a large-scale disaster remains a concern. Hospitals are expected to function independently for as long as 96 hours. Reverse triage (early discharge), a strategy that creates surge bed capacity while conserving resources, has been modeled for adults but not pediatric patients. Objective: To estimate the potential of reverse triage for surge capacity in an academic pediatric hospital. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this retrospective cohort study, a blocked, randomized sampling scheme was used including inpatients from 7 units during 196 mock disaster days distributed across the 1-year period from December 21, 2012, through December 20, 2013. Patients not requiring any critical interventions for 4 successive days were considered to be suitable for low-risk immediate reverse triage. Data were analyzed from November 1, 2014, through November 21, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportionate contribution of reverse triage to the creation of surge capacity measured as a percentage of beds newly available in each unit and in aggregate. Results: Of 3996 inpatients, 501 were sampled (268 boys [53.5%] and 233 girls [46.5%]; mean [SD] age, 7.8 [6.6] years), with 10.8% eligible for immediate low-risk reverse triage and 13.2% for discharge by 96 hours. The psychiatry unit had the most patients eligible for immediate reverse triage (72.7%; 95% CI, 59.6%-85.9%), accounting for more than half of the reverse triage effect. The oncology (1.3%; 95% CI, 0.0%-3.9%) and pediatric intensive care (0%) units had the least effect. Gross surge capacity using all strategies (routine patient discharges, full use of staffed and unstaffed licensed beds, and cancellation of elective and transfer admissions) was estimated at 57.7% (95% CI, 38.2%-80.2%) within 24 hours and 84.1% (95% CI, 63.9%-100%) by day 4. Net surge capacity, estimated by adjusting for routine emergency department admissions, was about 50% (range, 49.1%-52.6%) throughout the 96-hour period. By accepting higher-risk patients only (considering only major critical interventions as limiting), reverse triage would increase surge capacity by nearly 50%. Conclusions and Relevance: Our estimates indicate considerable potential pediatric surge capacity by using combined strategic initiatives. Reverse triage adds a meaningful but modest contribution and may depend on psychiatric space. Large volumes of pediatric patients discharged early to the community during disasters could challenge pediatricians owing to the close follow-up likely to be required.